Energy demand projections
Energy efficiency improvements will help curb the growth in global energy demand to about 25 percent over the period to 2040, while global economic output nearly doubles. To put this in perspective, if world energy demand grew as fast as estimated GDP, energy demand growth could be about four times the projected amount.
Emerging markets in non-OECD nations will account for essentially all energy demand growth, led by the expanding economies in the Asia Pacific region.
Continuing urbanization and a significant expansion of the middle class, particularly in China and India, will help drive this trend, highlighted by greater access to modern energy in homes, rising industrial demand, and significant increases in personal and commercial transportation needs.
Electrification and gradual decarbonization continue as significant global trends. Energy demand for power generation accounts for about 50 percent of global demand growth. Energy sources shift toward cleaner fuels such as natural gas, renewables and nuclear.
Global energy demand varies by sector
Energy demand shifts toward non-OECD
Global energy mix shifts to lower carbon fuels
Transportation energy projections
Advancements in transportation have shrunk our world, while opening up new vistas and possibilities. One consequence of billions of people joining the global middle class in the next quarter century is that it will lead to greater travel, additional cars on the road and increased commercial activity.
Global transportation-related energy demand is projected to increase by close to 30 percent. At the same time, total miles traveled per year by cars, sport utility vehicles (SUVs) and light trucks will increase about 60 percent, reaching about 14 trillion in 2040. As personal mobility increases, average new-car fuel economy (including SUVs and light trucks) will improve as well, rising from about 30 miles per gallon now to close to 50 miles per gallon in 2040.
The growth in transportation energy demand is expected to account for about 60 percent of the growth in liquids fuel demand. Liquids demand for light-duty vehicles is expected to be relatively flat to 2040, reflecting better fleet fuel economy and significant growth in electric cars.
Transportation energy demand growth driven by commerce
Global transportation energy demand relative to GDP
Commercial transportation grows in all aspects
Access to personal mobility increases
Efficiency mitigates light duty demand growth
Electric vehicles grow rapidly
Liquids demand trajectory uncertain but resilient
Residential and commercial energy projections
As populations grow and prosperity rises around the world, we will need more energy to power homes, offices, schools, shopping centers and hospitals. Combined residential and commercial energy demand is projected to rise by more than 20 percent through 2040. About 90 percent of this demand growth will be met by electricity. Led by the growing economies of non-OECD nations, average worldwide household electricity use will rise about 30 percent between 2016 and 2040.
Energy efficiency plays a big role within the residential and commercial sectors as modern appliances, advanced materials and policies shape the future.
Residential and commercial demand shifts to non-OECD
Residential energy use reflects efficiency gains
Electricity demand surges
Household electricity up in non OECD
Industry energy projections
Energy and industry have a long history together, and their future remains intertwined. Energy fuels industries of all kinds, from microchip manufacturing to skyscraper construction, food processing to pharmaceuticals, agriculture to zero-emission vehicle production. Consumer demand for the many and varied products that industries offer has provided the impetus to unlock new sources of energy supply from the industrial revolution to the shale revolution.
As global prosperity continues to expand, industrial energy demand will increase. Most of the growth occurs in emerging markets. The chemicals industry is the industrial sub-sector with the highest rate of growth, as demand for plastics and other petrochemical products outpaces GDP in many regions.
Industrial energy demand growth would be much higher if not for the persistent pursuit of energy efficiency improvements. The Outlook anticipates technology advances, as well as the increasing shift toward cleaner-burning fuels such as electricity and natural gas.
Industry undergirds global economic expansion
Oil gas and electricity fuel industrial growth
Heavy industry migrates to emerging markets
Heavy industry energy evolves toward cleaner fuels
Consumer demand propels chemicals growth
Rising prosperity lifts chemicals energy demand
Chemicals production relies on oil and natural gas
Electricity and power generation projections
Demand for electricity continues to rise as it is the energy used in powering wide applications ranging from lighting to home appliances to global e-commerce and digital services. Power generation uses the broadest array of fuels: coal, natural gas, nuclear and renewables such as hydroelectricity, solar and wind.
As electricity use rises, the types of fuels used to generate electricity will shift, globally and regionally. Policies seeking to address climate change and air quality will influence the choice of sources, with wind and solar, natural gas, and nuclear fueling growth in power generation.
Electricity sources shift
Natural gas and renewables dominate growth
Renewables penetration increases across all regions
Electricity generation highlights regional diversity
Natural gas is a key fuel for reliable electricity generation
Different policy or technology choices can impact outcome